There’s a lot of money to be obtained this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going thicker than usual this week following the big GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than normal. Here is the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize so I believe it’s well worth chasing in the event that you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we should observe a lot of ties on this card with the popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in cash games which makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he must be so highly owned that it won’t even damage your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the highest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird because I just picked Paul Felder as my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups didn’t have him and you only have to be top ~50% of the field to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% owned. When he loses, that’s half of the field that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% simply because of the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned man to set you at a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Would it really shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades before, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the struggle and that should give him a huge edge. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a decision then I presume he will pay his off DK cost and will be a good underdog to utilize so it is possible to save salary on your lineups. I can also find this fight ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I don’t see him paying off that large price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he will have his main advantage in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I’d rather cover the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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