This weekend, we have a PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square and move on. He must dominate this fight and he can complete it on the toes or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I would like to attempt to have at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That’s the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I did not think Jones could find a finish then maybe he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. Nonetheless, this is a possible 5-round battle, and that I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get away from Jon Jones because he’ll be quite highly owned. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill off half the area because that would not be enough points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP play of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be out of his wrestling. He is among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after controlling every business he has been in. He won’t wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, so I expect him to shoot for takedowns straight away and chain wrestle till he receives them. When he receives high control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can do on the floor and he should take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that is what makes him a great play if he is able to come up with the victory.
Underdog play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity alone from Sanchez should win it there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most nowadays, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to pay up for all those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind out a decision triumph here I think he can get 10x that wages and when we can get a win from him in that cheap salary, I think we will probably be in line for this $50k win if we hit our other five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter because I’m making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the man I want the least of. I try to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I don’t believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a opportunity. I think a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and that he actually doesn’t possess the one punch/kick power it would take to pull that off. I’d be amazed if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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